Stripe secondary just cleared at $115B — a 19% mark-up from December.

Notable that the buyer was a sovereign, not a crossover fund. Read-through: late-stage liquidity is bifurcating. Names with real cashflow get sovereign bid; the rest wait for IPO windows. Watching what this implies for our 2021 vintage.

Private credit AUM just crossed $2.1T globally.

Half of new origination this quarter is sub-investment grade. The market needs a public moment of stress-testing before the next cycle. We are positioning the credit book accordingly — tighter covenants, shorter duration, more first-lien.

The Fed is behind the curve on services inflation. Long real assets, short duration. We are running the largest commodities book we have had since 2022.

We are leading a $400M Series F in Anthropic at a $60B post.

Co-leads: Lightspeed, Spark. Sovereign anchor: Mubadala. Use of proceeds: dedicated training compute through 2027. This is the inference economy thesis playing out faster than we modeled.

NVDA earnings tonight. Whatever the print, the read-through to the rest of the AI infra book will be louder than the number itself. Watching Coreweave, Vertiv, Eaton.

Brookfield closed our $12B real assets continuation vehicle.

GP-led secondary on three trophy infra assets. LP base: 60% net new, 40% rollover. The continuation market has matured — LPs no longer treat these as adverse selection. They treat them as access.

The current debt cycle dynamic looks more like 1937 than 2008. Read history. Position accordingly. We are running long gold, short long-duration sovereigns.

GIC adding $4B to US private credit mandate.

Direct lending to mid-market sponsors with EBITDA $50M-$250M. Targeting Sortino above public HY by 250bps over a cycle. RFP closes November.

Pod shop dispersion is back. The 90/10 PnL ratio inside multi-managers is the widest I have seen in 5 years. Talent compression at the top is real.

New paper: “Statistical arb in the age of foundation models.”

TL;DR: alpha decay accelerated 3x post-2023 for traditional stat-arb signals. Edge is migrating to alternative data with semantic features that LLMs can extract at scale. The training infra arms race is now an alpha question.

Blackstone is now the largest owner of US data center capacity. We saw this coming in 2021 and built. Now infra is the moat for AI.

BlackRock crosses $12T AUM. Active ETF inflows hit a record.

Active beta is the structural story of the next decade. The line between active and passive is dissolving — thesis-driven ETFs are the wrapper retail and institutions both want. Our model portfolios business doubled YoY.

Forty years in this business: the firms that survive cycles are the ones that say no. Discipline at the top of the cycle matters more than aggression at the bottom.

We just led a $40M Series A in a women's sports media play.

TAM thesis: women's sports media rights are 5% of total but driving 30% of YoY rights inflation. The structural mispricing is closing fast. Buy the picks-and-shovels.

Carlyle's portfolio company TalkingPoints just hit $200M ARR. Quietly one of the best edtech outcomes of the cycle. Patience compounds in ways the market under-prices.